Trade deadline is approaching (Feb. 8, 2024) – there’s been a ton of speculation around what the Oklahoma City Thunder would do:

• Will they make any trades or will they hold still?
• What position would they try to upgrade? Who would they go after?
• If they do trade, how many assets would they give up – would it be for a superstar?‘

Let’s dive into the first question: will they make any trades or will they hold still?

Since 2010, Sam Presti has made 17 total trades around the trade deadline (January – February timeframe, with the exception of the 2020-2021 season where the trade deadline was pushed back to March). The Thunder front office has had a total of 3 years in the ~14 year timeframe where they didn’t make any trade deadline transactions: 2019 – 2020; 2017 – 2018; 2011 – 2012. This is all to say, chances are high that Sam Presti will make some transaction in this year’s trade deadline.

There will be a seismic shift away from his most recent trade strategy – since 2018, Sam Presti has made 7 trade deadline trades where the objective was to collect draft assets; instead, look for Sam to build additional depth in this trade deadline. I believe the best comparison to leverage is the 2010 – 2011 season. In the prior season (2009 – 2010) the young Thunder team, comprising of the Kevin Durant / Russell Westbrook / James Harden core, made a large leap by taking the 8^th seed in the West and pushing the Kobe-led Lakers to a 6 game series in the first round. In the proceeding season, 2010 – 2011, the Thunder were showing significant progress to break the 50-win mark again, and Sam decided to cash in on a younger asset, Jeff Green, in exchange for veteran leadership and to primarily fill an area where Sam Presti saw a weakness in – the front court & defense. Up until the 2011 NBA trade deadline, the young OKC Thunder team was 21^st in the league in points allowed per game, driven heavily by how many points they were giving up in the paint as they ranked 28^th in the league in points in the paint allowed. Not only did the OKC Thunder give up a young core piece in Jeff Green, but they also provided some draft capital (e.g., the 2012 1^st round pick, 2013 1^st round pick, and the 2013 2^nd round pick) for Kendrick Perkins and Nate Robinson.

I think that Sam will mimic a similar move for this trade deadline – he will most likely be looking to upgrade in an area where he sees the biggest weakness in for the Thunder and willing to give up a young asset and / or multiple draft capital to do so. The question, then, is: what position would they try to upgrade?

One of the biggest weaknesses for the Thunder is in the rebounding department: at the time of this writing, they rank 29^th and 28^th in the league, respectively, in reb % and def reb %. They provide the 2^nd most offensive rebounds per game in the league, giving up 12.5 offensive rebounds per game – translating to an average of 15.8 2^nd chances points per game (also 2^nd worst in the league).

Outside of rebounding, we also have some minor weaknesses in regards to screens – we rank last in the league in screen assists per game & screen assist points per game. According to Synergy Sports, we rank 25^th in the league in terms of off-screen action plays run in the league in terms of frequency. On top of that, we are a very heavy-isolation team (Synergy Sports shows us to be 6^th in the league in most isolation plays run – makes sense when SGA is an isolation maestro… and so is J-Dub).

To address both of these weaknesses, I think we need a big man who can win the rebound battles & also be a big body to set screens – right now, our biggest screen setter is Jaylin Williams. Chet is great on the pick & pops but very rarely is his frame going go to cause trouble for any defender to fight through.  

Nothing ground breaking here as I’m sure most have heard Zach Lowe, Kevin Pelton, Bobby Marks, and the other ensemble of basketball intellects mention that the Thunder need to upgrade and get a bigger body upfront. The question, then, is who should they go after?

There are two archetypes of bigs to chase after: the more traditional, conventional big man or the stretch center. I built a framework to isolate to the top 4 big men I would want the Thunder to trade for — also taking into consideration that Presti never trades for a star / superstar in a trade deadline deal. The first step of the framework was filtering all the big men who are averaging at least 10% in reb% and 15% in def reb% — this lands us somewhere in the top quartile of rebounding metrics in the league. From there, I assigned an offensive and defensive score to each player. With each archetype, I came up with an offensive and defensive scorecard based on specific criteria e.g., what is their points per possession ranks on catch & shoots (for big men). I won’t dive into the specifics of how I formulated this scorecard, but for the purpose of this article, note that I gave different weights prioritizing certain play types e.g., a traditional, conventional big man would have more weight focused on their points per possession at the rim, in points per possession as the pick & roll man, offensive rebounder, etc.  

This is the bubble chart of what I landed with (x-axis is my offensive score I rated them; y-axis is defensive score that I rated them; and size of the bubble is their reb%):

(other honorable mentions that are in this bubble chart but their headshots are hidden are: Andre Drummond, Jonas Valanciunas, Nic Claxton, Larry Nance Jr., Wendell Carter Jr., Deni Avdija — totally recognizing that Tari Eason and Deni Avdija aren’t classified as “bigs” but they had really robust rebounding numbers so I included them into the analysis)

I want to highlight my top 4 bigs from this bubble chart (in order of my preferred trade targets):

Jalen Smith: Jalen has been highly efficient this season, averaging 10.7 ppg on 63% FG% / 48% 3PT% / 70% FT% shooting splits. With the recent acquisition of Pascal Siakam, there’s questions around how Indiana will spread their big-man minutes around although we haven’t seen any significant minutes dip in Jalen’s playing time since Pascal’s arrival.

• Highlights: He had the best offensive score in my model – he’s top 4% in the league in points per possession at the rim, averaging ~75% from the field with shots at the rim, marking him one of the best finishers in the league in the paint. Not only that, but he’s top 3% in the league in points per possession on spot-up plays, averaging 49% from 3PT shots on spot ups. On pick & pops, he’s been averaging 50% from 3PT. He is the perfect complement to Shai. Moreover, he’s a rebounding monster – he’s 25^th in the league in reb% and 17^th in the league in def reb%.
• Downsides: His defense is horrendous (and quite frankly the entire Indiana Pacers’ defense is bad). He is bottom 10% in the league in defending pick & rolls. He is only average in protecting the rim as he hovers around the top ~50% mark, and same can be said for his isolation defense. It is worth mentioning that his post up defense is top 20% in the league in points per possession allowed.
• Hypothetical proposal & my thoughts: Kenrich Williams + two 2^nd round picks for Jalen Smith. Indiana really needs a versatile wing defender, partially why I believe they picked up Bruce Brown in the prior offseason. Kenrich has an impressive defensive rating this season with a rating of 106.7 (this is 13^th best in the league, filtering players that average > 15 mpg and who’s played > 20 games). Kenrich has been a stable veteran leader on this Thunder team, but I think this allows Shai to also step up on his leadership development opportunities. This is my favorite trade of the bunch and the one that makes the most sense – Jalen is also young enough that he fits with our timeline.

Kelly Olynyk: Kelly Olynyk is super-efficient on the offensive end – averaging 8.1 ppg on 56% FG% / 43% 3PT% / 84% FT splits. He also has extremely high basketball IQ, averaging 4.3 assists per game in only 20 minutes per game – with a 2.5 assist / TO ratio. He also has ties to this team since he played for Team Canada with Shai and Lu.

• Highlights: He can score at the rim and from the perimeter at high efficiency – he’s top 8% in the league in points per possession at the rim, shooting 72% from the field at the rim. He’s top 8% in the league in catch & shoots as well, shooting ~47% on 3PT shots. Although he doesn’t get many offensive rebounds, he’s extremely efficient when he does, providing 1.39 points per possession per offensive rebound (top 9% in the league).
• Downsides: He’s very bad on defense – he is bottom 20% in the league in points per possessions allowed at the rim ; he’s bottom 8% in the league in defending pick and rolls. He’s also seemingly late on close outs as he’s bottom 10% in the league in points per possession allowed in spot-up opportunities. Not only is he bad on defense, but this entire exercise was to address the Thunder’s rebounding need and he’s only mediocre at rebounding – a 17.9% def reb percentage which, at the time of writing, marks top ~65^th in the league.
• Hypothetical proposal & my thoughts: Davis Bertans, 2024 (LAC Unprotected) FRP, and 2025 2^nd round pick for Kelly Olynyk. Utah will want to continue collecting draft assets to build around Lauri Markannen, Keyonte George, and their young core. It’s a dangerous game trading with Danny Ainge but for an expiring Kelly Olynyk contract, I think Utah will be happy with getting an upcoming expiring contract with Bertans and draft capital. The 2024 unprotected LAC FRP will be a late first round pick and OKC will likely have 3 picks in the 2024 draft, and they won’t be able to take on 3 first round picks. I’m not sure I would want to do this trade if Utah wants additional draft capital. I know the Thunder have many to give but given Kelly’s defensive flaws, I don’t want to overpay for him just because he’s highly efficient on offense.

Day’Ron Sharpe: Day’Ron is the only big from the “traditional big” archetype that I would target. He has crazy high energy as the big man off the bench for the Brooklyn Nets, averaging 7 rebounds per game in 16 minutes per game (nearly 3 offensive rebounds per game) – this translates to the 2^nd most rebounds per game on a 36 minutes basis in the league. Like Jalen Smith, he’s also young and fits with our timeline, which is a huge plus.

• Highlights: unlike the others so far, his highlights are more on the defensive end – he had the highest defensive score of the set that I examined. He is top quartile in 3 separate criteria: points per possession allowed at the rim; points per possession allowed on pick & rolls; and points per possession allowed on post ups. Lastly, he seemingly plays great defense without fouling – the Thunder are one of the worst teams in the league in sending opponents to the free throw line. Day’Ron has a FTA/FGA of 0.16 – of everyone who has played > 250 possessions, Jaxson Hayes is leading the league in FTA / FGA as 0.14. In addition to his defense, as mentioned he’s a great energy guy. According to Synergy Sports, he’s 11^th highest in frequency in offensive rebounds, even with limited minutes – he is 4^th in the league in offensive rebounds per game on a 36 minute adjusted basis. He’s also very efficient as the pick and roll man, providing 1.41 points per possession, and nearly top 10% in the league.
• Downsides: he doesn’t handle isolation defense well – he’s bottom 20% in the league in points per possession allowed. Opponents shoot 55% from the field when they have Day’Ron in isolation. Furthermore, because he belongs to the “traditional, conventional big man” archetype, he has zero perimeter offense. He could potentially create clusters in our offense, which would mean that we need to surround him with really good shooters when he’s playing.
• Hypothetical proposal & my thoughts: Tre Mann + two 2^nd round picks for Day’Ron Sharpe. The Nets are seemingly in sell mode to collect on their already large treasure chest of draft assets that they collected from the Kevin Durant, Kyrie Irving, etc trades. They are currently without a great point guard as Spencer Dinwiddie has been playing sub-par this season – they obviously want to give additional minutes to Cam Thomas, but this also allows them to experiment with young talent like Tre Mann and giving him opportunities. Nets would mostly do this to collect additional draft capital though. The price seems right on this one – if the Nets agree, I’d be pretty happy with this trade because the value of the upgrade far exceeds the cost (although the team seems to love Tre Mann and it’s always sad when one of the process OGs are dealt).

Al Horford: Al Horford is averaging his least amount of minutes per game as a Boston Celtics at 27 mpg – the Celtics are probably trying to conserve and ease his minutes for the playoffs. He would bring a tremendous amount of playoff experience & veteran leadership to the team, and there have been reports that Boston would make another move at the trade deadline to go all-in on their championship window for this postseason.

• Highlights: Al Horford had a great offensive score because he’s really well rounded – he is top 11% in the league in points per possession at the rim (converting 70.4% of his field goals at the rim) and he’s top quartile in the league in points per possession on catch & shoots and spot ups (41.7% from the 3 on spot ups). He also had a well rounded defensive score. He ranks in the top 28% in pick and roll defense in points per possession allowed and also does a decent job of holding his own in isolation plays as he allows ~38% shooting from the field when he’s the isolation defender.
• Downsides: his only downside from what I’ve seen is that he ranks in the bottom third in the league in points per possession allowed as a post-up defender. Additionally, Al Horford has been a consistent integral piece to the Boston Celtics’ playoff runs – it will be pretty hard to pry him away from the Celtics. The Celtics points in the paint rank dead last in the league – they’ll mostly look for someone who can drive and / or cut.
• Hypothetical proposal & my thoughts: Vasilije Micic + Aaron Wiggins + 2^nd round pick for Al Horford. Boston wants to do this because they need an additional playmaker off of the bench with Micic’s vision & experience. Wiggins also provides them easier points in the paint with his cutting ability. It’s not my favorite trade at the moment given how great Micic and Wiggins have been playing, but I do think it’s a win-win for both teams.

I hope you all enjoyed this post — I really enjoyed developing a framework on how to view trade targets. Excited to see what Sam Presti does at the trade deadline, but by now, we’ve all learned to trust Sam’s decisions so I’m sure it will be genius regardless. Give me your thoughts & comments below – would love to hear any feedback.

Thunder up!