Case for Shai for All Defensive Team

Nba.com currently has Shai Gilgeous-Alexander in 3rd place in their MVP Ladder. Shai is averaging 30+ points per game in back-to-back seasons, with higher efficiency this year than his 2022-2023 season — he is shooting 55% from the field this year vs. 51% from the field last seasons, and his TS% is up 200 basis points this season. Additionally, his rebounding and assist figures are also slightly up while averaging slightly less minutes per game.

What has gone under the radar is Shai’s defensive prowess. Shai has a robust case to make all-defensive team this season or at least deserves a large amount of votes; let’s benchmark his metrics to former guards who have won all-defensive team.

Looking back at the past 5 seasons, there are two sets of benchmarks to evaluate:

Team defensive performance: the former guards who have won all-defensive teams in the past 5 years have played on teams that:

• Average at least a top 4 seed in their conference (exceptions apply e.g., Alex Caruso last year with the Chicago Bulls, but on average, all-defensive guards played on teams that finish at least top 4 in their respective conferences).
• Rank on average as a top 6 team in the league in team defensive rating (on average, the teams that all-defensive guards have played on had defensive ratings of ~109 — however, it’s more appropriate to benchmark rankings instead of absolute values because it’s well noted that league-wide offensive rating has increased year-over-year while league-wide defensive rating has decreased each year.)
• Rank on average as a top 10 team in the league in opposing points allowed (on average opposing teams averaged ~110 points per game).
• Rank as a top 7 team in the league in opponent field goal % allowed (on average ~45%).

Individual defensive performance: the set of former guards who have won all-defensive teams in the past 5 years:

• averaged at least 2 stocks per game (steals + blocks)
• ranked top 19% in defensive rating in the league
• averaged at least 2.9 deflections per game
• were solid defensive rebounders, with an average contested def reb % of ~20%

So here’s how Shai matches up to these benchmarks:

Team defensive performance:

	Average seed in conference	Rank of defensive rating in league	Rank of opposing points allowed per game in league	Rank of oFG% allowed in league
Benchmark	Top 4	Top 6	Top 10	Top 7
2023-2024 OKC Thunder	1st	4th	13th	1st

Individual defensive performance:

	Stocks per game (steals + blocks)	Rank of defensive rating in league	Deflections per game	Defensive rebounding %
Benchmark	2	Top 19%	2.9	20%
2023-2024 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander	3.1	Top 20%	3.6	21%

Shai is arguably meeting and / or exceeding each benchmark. Another interesting benchmark to compare is Shai’s man defense vs. Marcus Smart’s in his 2021-2022 defensive player of the year season.

For Marcus Smart’s defensive player of the year season, when Marcus Smart was playing man defense, opponents averaged 0.9 points per possession on Marcus Smart. This was good for top 31% in the league for that season (stats & analytics provided by Synergy Sports). In comparison, Shai is allowing 0.93 points per possession this season, which translates to top 32% in the league for the season.

These benchmarks all prove that Shai is worthy of being in the all-defensive team discussions – chatter that hasn’t been as widespread by announcers, podcasts, etc. One area where Shai can improve and solidify his case is with his isolation defense. When opposing players run isolation play sets against Shai, Shai is allowing 0.78 points per possession, which is top 24% in the league. Although this is relatively impressive, it is nowhere near the marks that Marcus Smart had in his 2021-2022 season — Marcus Smart allowed 0.61 points per possession which was top 8% in the league.

That said, it’s time for the league to start giving credit to Shai with the great defensive season he’s having in conjunction with his offensive one.